An Ocean of Uncertainty

THE FOURTEENTH NIGHT

The great windless zone has become a reality.Those who have held the lead for several days — Skipper Macif (1st), Wings of the Ocean (2nd), and Cap St Barth (4th) — are now skirting around it via the northwest, while their rivals, including Demain (5th) and Région Bretagne CMB Espoir (6th), are opting for a more direct southerly route. Some have taken advantage of the situation to move up the rankings, such as Les Étoiles Filantes (3rd) in the north, or Région Bretagne CMB Océane (7th), continuing their incredible comeback. But everything is still to play for.

Life on board during the Transat Paprec

After two weeks at sea, “it’s always the same view — blue water, a bit of sun, a white spinnaker. Sometimes it’s more grey, sometimes more blue — and it’s been like that for days,” sums up Davy Beaudart (HelloWork). The sailors have long since learned how to cope with uncertainty at sea.

Among the current concerns: squalls darkening the skies and lashing the fleet. “They’re making our lives hell,” says Martin Le Pape (Demain). “Sometimes, we just get caught out by them,” adds Mael Garnier (Selancia-Cerfrance). Pier-Paolo Dean and Tiphaine Rideau (Banques Alimentaires) and Laure Galley and Kévin Bloch (DMG MORI Academy) have captured the squalls on camera. “There’s wind, there are squalls… and after that, we’re on vacation!” laughs Kévin.

But first, the endgame of this race still needs to be written — and it runs right through this massive, chaotic, windless “bubble” that seems to encircle the Caribbean. “It’s a real puzzle that’s going to tighten the race significantly,” admits Thomas André (Cap St Barth). The light airs and squalls have already shaken things up: Romain Bouillard and Irina Gracheva (Décrochons la lune) found themselves completely becalmed. “It was a big blow to morale,” Romain confesses. “It’s tough knowing we worked for 12 days to end up stuck and unable to do anything. I’m gutted — it’ll take time to process.” The same thing happened for about an hour to Martin Le Pape and Mathilde Géron (Demain).

Two distinct strategies emerging

At the head of the fleet, two clear strategies have formed. On one side: the leaders — Skipper Macif (Charlotte Yven and Hugo Dhallenne, 1st), Wings of the Ocean (Alexis Thomas and Pauline Courtois, 2nd), Les Étoiles Filantes (Quentin Vlamynck and Audrey Ogereau, 3rd), and Cap St Barth (Cindy Brin and Thomas André, 4th) — who have been sailing slightly farther north since last night before entering the heart of the windless zone.

On the other side: a chasing pack led by Demain (Martin Le Pape and Mathilde Géron, 5th), Région Bretagne CMB Espoir (Victor Le Pape and Estelle Greck, 6th), and Région Bretagne CMB Océane (Lola Billy and Corentin Horeau, 7th), who have been staging an impressive comeback. They’re trying to cut across, staying over 100 nautical miles south of the leaders. In short, they’re aiming for a shorter route, though one that looks more treacherous.

The gap between leaders and followers is closing

"Faced with this windless bubble, there’s very little distance between the calm zone and areas where there’s still breeze," notes Yann Chateau from Race Management. He echoes Francis Le Goff’s metaphor of “a 4x4 road bordered by ditches.” “Every little wind shift makes a difference.”

A few key takeaways:

1. The leaders are now out of AIS range — which, according to Yann, “has contributed to the lead group splitting up.”

2. Some routing models now go straight to Saint Barthélemy — a path favoring the chasers. “Now, some routes show only 2.5 hours separating the front from the back — that shows how conditions are allowing a comeback from behind.”

Lastly, it remains extremely difficult to predict what’s next. “It’s hard to say,” admits Yann. “Now it’s all about playing the wind shifts, exploiting every change in angle, every fluctuation in pressure — trying to slow down as little as possible.” In the midst of this exhausting battle, the skippers might do well to reflect on Socrates’ famous quote: “The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.”

NEWS FROM THE FLEET

In their videos, voice notes, and messages, one thing is clear: nothing is easy — especially after 13 days at sea. “Heading for St. Barth to visit Johnny’s grave!” jokes Kévin Bloch (DMG MORI Academy). “We’re six days from the finish, two weeks soaking wet, conditions have been tough — it’s been a real wake-up call!” adds Mael Garnier (Selancia-Cerfrance).

On board Humains en action, Anaëlle Pattusch and Hugo Cardon rolled up their sleeves for repairs, “making sure things will hold together until the finish.” “It’s getting long, but mentally we’re hanging in there,” say Pier-Paolo Dean and Tiphaine Rideau (Banques Alimentaires). Julie Simon (HelloWork) chooses to look on the bright side: just before her shift, after brushing her teeth, she admired “the beautiful light” produced by the squalls. Meanwhile, Cindy Brin captured a photo of the moon last night, thrilled to finally see it shining.