METEO CONSULT weather bulletin for Wednesday, May 7

General situation

This Wednesday, irregular and unstable east to south-east flow on the edge of a soft low pressure area at 1013 hPa located west of 65° west longitude.

Thursday, there will still be an unstable and stormy east to south-east flow on the edge of the soft low pressure system at 1014 hPa located at 27°N and 67°W with unpredictable wind conditions.

Friday, the soft zone will fill and shift westward to 70°W longitude. Trade winds will resume in the vicinity of the Antilles.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat Paprec

This Wednesday morning at 7:00, almost the entire fleet is stuck in a zone of soft low pressure for these last few hundred miles before the finish. The fleet has tightened up in this weather context, with the backmarkers able to make up some of their lost time by grouping together at the front. The suspense is therefore total with several changes in the rankings in recent hours. The ranking is also very tight with the first 15 duos only less than 50 miles apart. Even the duo of Ellie Driver/Oliver Hill on Women Engineering Society was able to make up some of their lost time, still keeping more air space than the competitors at the front of the pack. They were less than 200 miles from the front of the race this Wednesday morning. Now, it's the duo of Martin Le Pape/Mathilde Géron on Demain who are leading the race, just over 280 miles from the finish in Saint-Barthélemy, sailing on starboard tack at around 5-6 knots in this lull. The duo is closely followed by Romain Bouillard/Irina Gracheva on Décrochons La Lune in 2nd, then by four duos just a few miles apart. They are therefore mostly neck and neck and will be able to take advantage of a little more air at times temporarily in this lull, between two calm situations. The ranking is therefore likely to shift several more times over the next 48 hours, until the finish.

Wednesday, May 7

Wind conditions are improving a little this Wednesday with the wind picking up a bit to blow between 8 and 12 knots, but it will remain very erratic in strength and direction, before easing off especially towards the end of the evening/beginning of the night. It will oscillate between the east-southeast and the south-southeast with numerous sail adjustments and maneuvers to be carried out. The sailors' speeds of progress will continue to vary greatly depending on their position on the race course, so regular changes in the ranking are expected. Approaching the Antilles arc, a route close to the direct line by passing a little further south seems to be a good option, where for the moment the sailors are still keeping a little air in their path. A more northerly route could also be an option, but here again there could be surprises in this slack situation. Some skippers will still find themselves in the calm, where at times they could no longer make any progress at all. However, it will be necessary to remain focused as several squalls pass through this unstable and stormy situation. Others will be able to benefit from a little more air. "Luck" will therefore come into play in these final hours of the race.

Thursday, May 8

The sailors will continue their descent towards Saint-Barth in complicated wind conditions late in the night and early in the morning. The trade winds will not be determined to resume service with an east to southeast wind still as erratic as ever, which will ease as it turns a little to the left, so much so that on average, some models see this trade wind drop to only 6 knots at times. The duos will progress slowly, some taking advantage of slightly more favorable wind conditions than the others depending on their position on the water. The ranking will continue to shift with this light wind. However, some skippers will be able to get a little air during the day this Thursday with an east wind of around 10 knots expected gradually. By sailing on port tack with this east-southeast trade wind regime, part of the fleet could pass south of Barbuda before turning north to reach the long-awaited finish. The first sailors could therefore set foot on land as early as this Thursday at the very end of the day, if the wind is favorable. However, this complex weather situation with these erratic winds makes it difficult to accurately estimate the arrival time (ETA) of the first skippers. We will have to wait a little longer to determine the ETA. The suspense will remain until the end since our skippers could all arrive within a handkerchief of each other, probably within a gap of only 5-6 hours.

Friday, May 9

Friday will likely be the final day of racing for the fleet, with the finish expected within the next 24 hours. The weather conditions could improve slightly in these final hours of racing, with a light breeze that could gradually dissipate, giving way to more air and flow. The trade winds should thus resume, with a thrilling final stretch for our skippers, who will see the finish line approaching ever closer. Around ten knots in an easterly wind could accompany our sailors until the expected finish at the end of this Friday, French time.

Saturday, May 10

The last skippers should arrive no later than early Saturday morning, where wind conditions will have been favorable the day before, with up to 10 to 15 knots of wind on average, under this return of the trade winds in the east. For our sailors who have chosen a more northerly route, they will be able to finish this race on port tack at a good pace, in order to return to Saint-Barthélemy.