METEO CONSULT weather bulletin for Wednesday, April 30

General situation

This Wednesday, an active depression at 995 hPa north of Madeira with a weakening trade wind regime off the Canaries, but still active off Cape Verde.

On Thursday, the trade winds will still be present off Cape Verde, blowing from the east-northeast, with the 1025 hPa high pressure system over the Atlantic moving a little further south.

On Friday, a high pressure system continues to spread across the Atlantic, while a soft low pressure system develops off the coast of the Antilles.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat Paprec

This Wednesday morning at 7am, the entire fleet is well underway in the race to the Atlantic with a promising start to the crossing under a muscular and active trade wind regime of around twenty knots, even more than 25 knots this Tuesday. There are still 18 duos in the race after the forced retirement of the duo Arno Biston and Vittoria Ripa Di Meana on Article1 because their second spinnaker was torn during the night on Monday. The competition remains exciting with half the fleet in a handkerchief since the first 9 duos are still less than 50 miles apart. The competition will become even more interesting now with strategic choices along the way since a light wind will affect the course between now and this weekend. Two choices are therefore available to the skippers to avoid the air pocket: passage to the south to maintain a good trade wind regime or passage to the north to avoid the light wind. The leading duo of Alexis Thomas and Pauline Courtois on Wings of the Ocean has decided to turn north, while other sailors have already decided to deviate south. So, this isn't the time to give up for our competitors, even though fatigue is starting to set in after yesterday's tough conditions. They will have to stay focused at all costs for the next few days on a route that doesn't promise to be easy. The duo of Ellie Driver and Oliver Hill on Women Engineering Society are still bringing up the rear, sitting in 18th place, nearly 247 miles behind the leaders.

Wednesday, April 30

This Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure is gradually swelling to the north of the skippers' direct route. It is in fact a low pressure system that is moving low in latitude off the coast of Portugal that will slightly cut off the trade winds, since the influx of air on the right part of the high pressure system will be reduced. So it is today that our skippers will make a decision on the strategy to adopt for the rest of the race. For the fastest in the fleet, this trade wind system will remain well established throughout the day (around 17 to 20 knots) near the direct route, enough to still take advantage of gaining a few miles, without necessarily making a significant detour to the south, or even to the north. This trade wind will turn slightly to the right again, with a flow almost due east. To then keep some air and downwind under this trade wind regime, we will have to gently veer towards the southwest from the following night to try to get around the growing influence of the high pressure system further north and therefore the weakening of the trade winds expected on the direct route over the following days, especially as a light breeze will be approaching from the weekend, forcing our sailors to make a detour.

Thursday, May 1st

On Thursday, the best strategy for our sailors would be to maintain a more southerly route, in order to maintain a trade wind regime that is still established for the day. The further the competitors are behind the leading duo, the more they will have to divert their route south. It is at the latitude of Cape Verde that these trade winds will remain moderate, at 15 to 20 knots, from the east. For sailors who choose this option, they will still be able to make satisfactory progress on port tack. For those latecomers, they will be less able to benefit from this still fairly active regime, and will probably find themselves under a slightly weaker trade wind regime, in an east-northeast sector with downwind conditions. These trade winds will turn a little more to the right as the hours go by, arriving in an east-southeast flow at the end of the day this Thursday. For sailors continuing their route southwest of the transect, they will risk having the wind very slightly on their beam. A real weakening of the wind is therefore expected to occur by the end of the weekend, where the sailors will gradually lose pressure, as they approach a soft low pressure system off the finish line in Saint-Barthélemy. It will therefore be necessary to anticipate the next race strategies. Fortunately, they will still have time at this stage to fine-tune their trajectory, as the weakening will be pushed back and lessen at the end of the weekend/beginning of next week.

Friday, May 2nd

Conditions will gradually weaken starting this Friday. As we approach the Antilles, the trade winds will weaken due to a lull located northeast of Saint-Barthélemy. However, this weakening will remain slight, which will allow our sailors to continue their course with a fairly downwind wind, port tack still at around 12 to 15 knots. The trade winds should continue to gradually shift to the right as we approach the lull near the Antilles, where the flow should shift to a southeasterly sector at around 10 to 14 knots by the end of the day. The skippers should still head towards the southern Antilles via the south of the direct route. Some will choose to take an even more southerly and less direct route in the hope of keeping more air, while others will choose to take the north route to bypass the lull, where they can also hope to keep some air. The sailors will not be at the end of their troubles for the following days, even if a good surprise could emerge concerning the light wind.

Saturday, May 3

On Saturday, after nearly two weeks at sea on their own, our sailors will be eager to quickly reach the finish line in Saint-Barthélemy. However, they will need to be patient and focused, as progress toward the Antilles will be slowed by light winds that will be felt starting this Saturday. The light winds on the sailors' path could still drop lower in latitude and slowly dissipate, which would be good news for our competitors. In this configuration, taking a route a little further north than the great circle transect would be a good solution, while the trade winds will remain weak further south. In any case, the winds will become increasingly weak, but they will still benefit from the winds before the light winds (around 10 to 14 knots). Conditions are likely to become weak starting late Sunday. Even though the deadline is still a long way off, an arrival in Saint-Barthélemy is possible around May 9.