METEO CONSULT Weather bulletin for Tuesday, May 6

General situation

This Tuesday, relative depression 1015 hPa centered at 23°N and 62°W with light wind conditions in the vicinity of the depression and a light to moderate east to southeast wind on the eastern edge of the soft depression

Wednesday, irregular and unstable east to southeast flow on the edge of a soft low pressure area at 1013 hPa located west of 65° west longitude.

Thursday, there will still be an unstable and stormy east to south-east flow on the edge of the soft low pressure system at 1014 hPa located at 27°N and 67°W with unpredictable wind conditions.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat Paprec

This Tuesday morning at 7am, almost the entire fleet entered a zone of weak low pressure that is likely to give the sailors a hard time for at least the next 48 hours. The fleet has tightened up in this weather context, with the backmarkers able to make up some of their lost time by all regrouping at the front. There is therefore likely to be little gap in the final ranking, with the top 12 duos only less than 50 miles apart. Only the duo of Ellie Driver/Oliver Hill on Women Engineering Society is more than 270 miles from the leader, having always been well away. While the entire group is well grouped, there are still differences in lateral position, as some have opted for a northerly route to keep as much wind as possible, even if it means extending their route. Others have opted for a southerly route to try to escape south of the zone of weak pressure. Finally, some are sailing on a median route, close to the direct route but with the risk of having a light and irregular wind for longer. The ranking continues to shift as the race progresses, but those favoring a northerly route remain slightly at the front. This Tuesday morning, it was still the duo Alexis Thomas/Pauline Courtois on Wings of the Ocean who held the lead of the race, closely followed by Cindy Brin/Thomas André on Cap Saint-Barth, 4 miles behind. Third place went to the duo Charlotte Yven/Hugo Dhallenne on Skipper MACIF, 9 miles behind the leading duo, while Quentin Vlamynck/Audrey Ogereau on Les Etoiles Filantes was in fourth place, only 10 miles behind the leaders. They are therefore mostly neck and neck and will be able to take advantage of a little more air at times in this light wind, between two calm conditions.

Tuesday, May 6

This Tuesday is likely to be a long and trying day for our 17 duos, who will have no choice but to cross the area of soft low pressure system spread out near the Antilles with light and very erratic winds. The wind will oscillate between the east and the southeast, between 5 and 8 knots, with a risk of finding themselves in air pockets. This situation will put our sailors' nerves to the test. Some risk finding themselves temporarily in the calm, stuck on the water, while others will take advantage of gusts that will allow them to progress. This weather situation is therefore very likely to reshuffle the cards, with a ranking that will inevitably be shaken up, as the fleet is tightly packed into just a few miles. This trade wind failure 2-3 days before the finish will upset our sailors, who will have to work tirelessly on the weather files to try to find a way out of this zone of erratic wind, knowing that these weather conditions are very difficult to predict, between squalls and air pockets. Those in favor of a middle route are continuing on the shortest possible route to reach Saint-Barth, but this option is perilous because the risk of calm is greater on this route option. Two other options are emerging: a more northerly route to then try to fall back towards Saint-Barthélemy in the southwest and thus try to keep some air. The other option is to take a southerly route, bypassing the direct route on port tack and hoping to find some trade winds. The end of this race therefore promises to be incredible for our skippers.

Wednesday, May 7

Wind conditions are expected to improve slightly this Wednesday, with the wind picking up a bit to blow between 8 and 12 knots, but it will remain very erratic in strength and direction. It will oscillate between the east-southeast and the south-southeast, with numerous sail adjustments and maneuvers to be made. The sailors' speeds are likely to vary greatly depending on their position on the water, so it is impossible to say which route option will be the winning one given the very erratic wind conditions forecast as they approach the Caribbean arc. A more northerly route seems to be a good option according to some models, with a slightly more consistent wind, but here again there could be some surprises in this slack situation. Some skippers will still find themselves in the calm, where at times they could no longer make any progress at all. However, it will be necessary to remain focused with the passage of several squalls in this unstable and stormy situation. Others will be able to take advantage of a little more air. The “luck” parameter therefore comes into play in these last hours of the race.

Thursday, May 8

The sailors will continue their descent to Saint-Barth in wind conditions that are once again complicated. The trade winds will not be determined to resume service with an east to southeast wind that remains as erratic as ever, and will ease again during Thursday, so much so that on average, some models see this trade wind dropping to only 5 knots at times. The duos will progress slowly, some taking advantage of slightly more favorable wind conditions than the others depending on their position on the water. The ranking will continue to shift, and with this wind too weak, the first sailors are not expected to reach the finish line until Friday, after some models predicted an earlier arrival this Thursday evening. This complex weather situation with these erratic winds makes it difficult to accurately estimate the arrival time (ETA) of the first skippers. We will have to wait a little longer to specify the ETA. The suspense will remain until the end as our skippers should all arrive within a handkerchief of each other, probably only 5-6 hours apart.

Friday, May 9

Friday will likely be the final day of racing for the fleet, with the finish expected within the next 24 hours. The weather conditions could improve slightly in these final hours of racing, with a light breeze that could gradually dissipate, giving way to more air and flow. The trade winds should thus resume, with a thrilling final stretch for our skippers, who will see the finish line approaching ever closer. Around ten knots in an easterly wind could accompany our sailors until the expected finish at the end of this Friday, French time.