METEO CONSULT weather bulletin for Thursday, May 1st

General situation

This Thursday, moderate east-northeast trade winds on the southern edge of a high pressure system centered at 1025 hPa 600 miles southwest of the Azores archipelago.

Friday, moderate easterly trade winds on the southwest edge of a 1024hPa high pressure system centered over the Atlantic at 32°N and 35°W.

Saturday, moderate east-southeast trade winds on the southwest edge of the high pressure system at 1023 hPa centered at 31°N and 32°W. Area of soft low pressure west of 50°W with a storm front at 48°W longitude ahead.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat Paprec

This Thursday morning at 7 o'clock, the 17 duos still in the race were making progress in the heart of the Atlantic in a more moderate trade wind than in recent days, allowing the sailors to catch their breath a little after the 25-knot trade winds on Tuesday. A real battle of the titans was taking place at the head of the fleet with a very close podium between Alexis Thomas/Pauline Courtois on Wings of Océan in first place, neck and neck with Cindy Brin/Thomas André on Cap SaintBarth 0.6 miles behind and Charlotte Yven/Hugo Dhallenne on Skipper MACIF 2.7 miles away. This leading trio managed to widen the gap with their pursuers who were sailing more than 30 miles behind. Within the fleet, there were not yet many options for taking courses to anticipate a vast zone of light wind located west of 50°W which blocked their path. Davy Beaudart/Julie Simon on Hellowork stand out from the rest of the fleet by having clearly taken a southern option on their route.

Thursday, May 1st

This Thursday, the trade winds remain fairly brisk between 15 and 18 knots and are turning to the right to veer eastward on the route of the sailors who are making progress towards the Antilles. While many skippers continue to make progress at around ten knots under spinnaker while not straying too far from the direct route, the major strategic choices to anticipate the expected light wind over the last third of the race course should begin to be made. Three main route options seem to be available to the sailors: a northerly route which could allow them to pass through the air pocket as narrowly as possible but significantly lengthening the course, a middle route as short as possible but with the risk of remaining in the light wind for a long time, a southerly route to maintain a consistent trade wind for as long as possible but with great uncertainty over the end of the course which is looking very light in terms of wind. The next few hours will therefore be crucial and exciting to follow depending on the trajectory options. Some are expected to head northwest and make brisk progress in the easterly trade winds to settle on a northerly course. Those who opt for a middle course will have to gybe along their route and will make slightly slower progress than those opting for the northerly course.

Friday, May 2nd

This Friday, those who have opted for a northerly route should jibe to begin a long tack with a westerly heading, under an east-southeast trade wind of around 15 knots. They will make fairly rapid progress, averaging 11 knots on port tack, with a significant detour from the direct route. For those who have opted for a middle or southerly route, the trade wind will be a little less consistent but they should maintain a lead over those who favor a northerly route, being closer to the direct route that takes them to Saint-Barthélemy. They will nevertheless have to make a few jibes on their trajectory to maintain a good angle to the wind and not stray too far from the great circle route (shortest route to the finish).

Saturday, May 3

This Saturday, sailors will see the air flow shift sharply to the southeast ahead of a storm front located around 48° West longitude. Those favoring the northern route will benefit from the strongest winds, around 18 to 20 knots. They should therefore make good speed while maintaining their easterly course. They will have to be extra vigilant in the afternoon or evening of this Saturday as the storm front passes. Rain could be intense with winds that will become irregular and capricious. It will no longer be the well-established trade wind. Sea conditions will deteriorate with a northeast swell that will cross a wind sea and waves coming from the southeast. The rest of the fleet will progress on a route close to the direct route under a less vigorous southeast trade wind. They will still be ahead of the storm front that they are expected to cross during the night from Saturday to Sunday.

Sunday, May 4th

This Sunday, wind conditions will significantly weaken after the passage of the rain and storm front. A zone of light and irregular winds will be a real headache for our sailors. Those in favor of the northerly route could hold onto some air on the northern edge of this vast zone of calm. In an easterly wind close to 10 knots, they will be able to progress westward by gybing. They will not be able to head south at the risk of falling back into the calm and will continue to deviate from the direct route. For those in favor of a middle route or a southerly route, the day will be complicated with a risk of finding themselves stuck on the water in the calm. They will have to watch for the slightest gust of wind to hope to gain ground. An unusual situation that could upset the rankings…