METEO CONSULT weather bulletin for Sunday, May 4

General situation

This Sunday, relative low pressure 1015 hPa centered at 20°N and 53°W with light wind conditions in the vicinity of the low pressure, south of 22°N. Moderate and unstable east to southeast wind regime at the northern edge of the low pressure.

Monday, relative low pressure 1015 hPa centered at 22°N and 57°W. Light wind conditions in the vicinity of the low pressure system south of 23°N. Irregular and unstable southeasterly flow at the northeast edge of the low pressure system.

Tuesday, relative low pressure 1015 hPa centered at 22°N and 61°W with light wind conditions in the vicinity of the low pressure and a light to moderate east to southeast wind at the northeastern edge of the low pressure.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat Paprec

This Sunday morning at 7 o'clock, the majority of the fleet was sailing at a good pace, port tack in a moderate southeasterly flow on the northeast edge of a soft low pressure area. The objective is to bypass the windless zone from the north by choosing the best possible trajectory. While the fleet was still quite compact yesterday, the game options are emerging and the sailors are spreading out a little more this Sunday morning. At the front of the race, Charlotte Yven/Hugo Dhallenne on Skipper MACIF managed to take first place by taking a slightly more southerly route than their rivals Alexis Thomas/Pauline Courtois on Wings of Océan located 9 miles behind them. 3rd place now goes to Quentin Vlamynck/Adery Ogereau on Les Etoiles Filantes who achieved a great feat on a median route, managing to overtake the duo Cindy Brin/Thomas André on Cap Saint-Barth, 4 miles behind. However, the rankings are still likely to change significantly as the wind gradually eases at the front of the race, becoming more irregular. Furthermore, the forecast's reliability is limited regarding the evolution of the light wind zone blocking their route to the Antilles. The final 5 days of racing before the first sailors cross the finish line promise to be fascinating to follow.

Sunday, May 4th

This Sunday, the sailors are trying to maintain a sustained east-southeast wind for as long as possible by skirting the area of soft low pressure from the north, without closing in too much so as not to lose ground and be left behind by their rivals. With differences in latitude, the sailors positioned furthest north will have the strongest wind, but they will have more route to cover and will at some point have to bring some south back into their route and will not be able to escape the wind, which will ease on their descent towards the Antilles. The sailors positioned furthest south will have to avoid getting trapped in the windless zone at all costs and regularly bring a little north into their route by gybing. Sailors sailing on a median route could do well by not straying too far from the direct route while maintaining enough air to make progress. With weather conditions remaining unstable this Sunday, the passage of squalls could play spoilsport with winds of irregular strength and direction, requiring maneuvers and sail adjustments.

Monday, May 5th

Most of the sailors are expected to sail on port tack with a southwesterly heading to make a long descent towards Saint-Barth, with the wind shifting from the right to southeast. The wind will ease significantly compared to the day before, blowing at an average of 10-12 knots in the morning and 7-8 knots in the afternoon. The sailors will therefore slow down significantly, with a slight speed advantage that will be maintained for those who opted for a northerly route. It will be interesting to see whether the more significant detour they made to circumvent the low pressure system proves worthwhile or not. Note that those who opted for a southerly route will have to remain vigilant to stay far enough away from the windless zone to avoid finding themselves stuck on the water. At the end of the day on Monday, most of the fleet will see the southeasterly wind continue to ease. With 4 to 6 knots of average east-southeast wind, sailors will have to be patient and avoid getting caught in the calm at all costs.

Tuesday, May 6

Tuesday is likely to be a long and trying day for our 17 duos, who will find themselves in a zone of weak and poorly established winds. The wind will oscillate between the east and southeast, between 5 and 8 knots, with a risk of experiencing a temporary wind failure. This weather situation is likely to reshuffle the cards, with the rankings inevitably being shaken up. This trade wind failure 2-3 days before the finish will frustrate our sailors, who will have to rack their brains to find the best possible route to reach Saint-Barthélemy.

Wednesday, May 7

Wind conditions are expected to gradually improve this Thursday, with an east-southeast and then southeast wind picking up a bit, reaching 8-10 knots. The sailors will therefore be able to pick up a bit of speed to make headway downwind on port tack, on a trajectory close to the direct route that leads them to Saint-Barthélemy. The sailors located furthest to the west of the race zone could be the most favored in their descent towards the Antilles, with a better angle to the wind. The end of the race will be exciting to watch, with the first sailors scheduled to finish on May 8 or 9.