METEO CONSULT weather bulletin for Monday, May 5

General situation

This Monday, relative low pressure 1016 hPa centered at 22°N and 59°W. Light wind conditions in the vicinity of the low pressure system. Irregular and unstable southeasterly flow at the northeastern edge of the low pressure system.

Tuesday, relative low pressure 1015 hPa centered at 23°N and 62°W with light wind conditions in the vicinity of the low pressure system and a light to moderate east to southeast wind at the eastern edge of the soft low pressure system

Wednesday, irregular and unstable east to southeast flow on the edge of a soft low pressure area located west of 65° west longitude.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat Paprec

This Monday morning at 7 o'clock, the majority of the fleet was sailing on port tack in a weakening east-southeast wind ahead of a zone of soft low pressure blocking their route. In this weather context, the latecomers are holding onto the wind a little longer than the leaders, so the fleet is tending to regroup at the front. There are still differences in lateral position, as some have opted for a northerly route to keep as much wind as possible, even if it means extending their route. Others have opted for a southerly route to try to escape south of the zone of soft pressure. Finally, some are sailing on a median route, close to the direct route but with the risk of having a light and irregular wind for a longer period. The outcome of this incredible situation will only be seen in 2-3 days, when the soft low pressure has dissipated.

The rankings continued to shift throughout the race, but those favoring a northern route remained at the forefront. Early Monday morning, Alexis Thomas/Pauline Courtois on Wings of the Ocean took back the lead, closely followed by Charlotte Yven/Hugo Dhallenne on Skipper MACIF, 4 miles behind. Third place went to the duo of Cindy Brin/Thomas André on Cap Saint-Barth, 11 miles behind the leading pair, while Quentin Vlamynck/Audrey Ogereau on Les Etoiles Filantes were in fourth place, 20 miles behind the leaders.

Monday, May 5th

This Monday, a large portion of the sailors will see the east-southeast wind ease, taking a slight right to head southeast. The speeds of the sailors at the front will slow, and the duos at the back of the race will take advantage of this to gain miles since the wind will remain ever stronger on their route. The gaps within the fleet will therefore narrow. The weather situation is becoming a real headache for our sailors, with a large zone of light and erratic wind to navigate and weather forecasts that are unreliable, even in the short term. Suffice it to say that the rankings are likely to be shaken up, a situation that is difficult to accept for our sailors, who have been working hard for two weeks to avoid losing ground to their rivals. Those in favor of a northerly route remain well placed, keeping a little more air space than the duos sailing on a more southerly route. It is difficult to know if their choice of route will pay off in the long term, as they have more miles to cover. Some skippers have taken a southerly course in recent hours and are trying to find a vein of wind that will keep the wind in their sails for as long as possible. Those advocating a middle course are continuing on the shortest possible route to reach Saint Barth, but this option is perilous because the risk of calm is greater on this route option.

Tuesday, May 6

Tuesday is likely to be a long and trying day for our 17 duos, who will have no choice but to cross the area of weak low pressure with light and very erratic winds. The wind will oscillate between the east and southeast, between 5 and 8 knots, with a risk of finding themselves in air pockets. This situation will put our sailors' nerves to the test. Some risk finding themselves temporarily in a calm state, stuck on the water, while others will take advantage of gusts that will allow them to progress. This weather situation is therefore likely to reshuffle the cards, with a ranking that will inevitably be disrupted. This trade wind failure 2-3 days before the finish will upset our sailors, who will have to work tirelessly on the weather files to try to find a way out of this zone of erratic winds.

Wednesday, May 7

Wind conditions are expected to improve slightly this Wednesday, with the wind picking up a bit to blow between 8 and 12 knots, but it will remain very erratic in strength and direction. It will oscillate between the east-southeast and the south-southeast, with numerous sail adjustments and maneuvers to be made. The speeds of the Figaro sailors are likely to vary greatly depending on their position on the race course, so it is impossible to say which route will be the winning one given the very erratic wind conditions forecast as they approach the Antilles arc.

Thursday, May 8

The sailors will continue their descent to Saint-Barth in once again challenging wind conditions. The trade winds will be reluctant to return to action, with an east to southeast wind that remains erratic and will ease again during Thursday. The pairs will progress slowly, with some taking advantage of slightly more favorable wind conditions than others depending on their position on the water. The rankings will continue to shift, and with this weak wind, the first sailors are not expected to reach the finish line until Friday.