METEO CONSULT weather bulletin for Monday, April 28

General situation

This Monday, a trough is approaching from the west off Madeira, while the trade wind regime is well established between the Canaries and Cape Verde and over the open Atlantic. The flow is picking up in the northern sector towards the Canaries.

On Tuesday, the flow will strengthen significantly between the 1030 hPa high pressure system and the low pressure system over the North Atlantic with the passage of a cold front. A vigorous northeast trade wind will blow between the Canary Islands and Cape Verde.

Wednesday, active depression at 1000 hPa north of Madeira with a weakening trade wind regime off the Canaries, but still active off Cape Verde.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat Paprec

This Monday morning at 7am, the entire fleet passed the La Palma waypoint with the goal of crossing the long Atlantic route, which is not expected to be easy over the next few days. Only the duo of Arno Biston and Vittoria Ripa Di Meana on Article1 decided to make a technical stopover on the island of Tenerife, their second spinnaker having torn during the night. They therefore find themselves last in the competition for the moment. The race remains close and exciting, with most of the sailors neck and neck in a steady and well-established Portuguese trade wind of around 15 knots. Only 20 miles separate the top nine in the race, between the leading duo (Alexis Thomas/Pauline Courtois on Wings of the Ocean) and Laure Galley/Kévin Bloch on DMG Mori Academy. All have chosen the same route for the moment, namely a passage a little further south of the direct route, in order to keep air off the ridge of high pressure affecting the Madeira area. The sailors are currently sailing on starboard tack at around 10 to 12 knots.

Monday, April 28

This Monday, the sailors who will be following the direct route to the Antilles will still find themselves under a rather moderate trade wind regime (15 to 18 knots) from the north-northeast off the passage of the ridge further north. The skippers who have chosen a more southerly route will keep a little more air, which will allow them to make up for any possible delay from the day before. However, the ridge will dissolve over the hours and the sailors will gradually find air from the north of their position. It is therefore the sailors who have chosen a more northerly route, closer therefore to the great circle transect, who will be able to take full advantage of this expected return of air especially at the end of the day this Monday. This more vigorous trade wind regime at the end of the day and evening will pick up from the right to gradually orient itself to the northeast, which will be more pleasant for our competitors with the wind coming from behind the boats. The trade winds will clearly pick up again, and will exceed a good twenty knots during the night from Monday to Tuesday. This trade wind could even exceed 25 to 27 knots at the end of the night, where the skippers will have to redouble their concentration, even if the wind will be downwind. Note that the sailors will still have to think carefully about their race strategy to optimize their trajectory in anticipation of a weakening of the trade winds still forecast for the end of the week, with route strategies that will be interesting.

Tuesday, April 29

On Tuesday, the trade winds are expected to remain vigorous, even powerful, along the skippers' route, especially on the southern part of the direct route to Saint-Barthélemy, thanks to the passage of a cold front that will revitalize this regime, gradually turning to the right again. Strategic thinking will be required to find the right compromise between speed and choice of course, all in conditions that will be tough for our competitors, which will put their nerves to the test in the open Atlantic. At this stage, the fleet will be sailing across the Atlantic at high speed under a trade wind of around twenty knots (20 to 25 knots). The skippers will have to perform several gybes to maximize speed, while remaining as comfortable as possible. They should even ease their sails a little to maintain this frenetic pace. This will also be the time for our competitors to think about their strategy for the following days with a weakening of the trade winds expected from Wednesday. Some will choose to take a more southerly and less direct route in order to keep some air, while others will choose to keep a more direct route but with the threat of finding themselves in an air pocket, and moving much more slowly.

Wednesday, April 30

On Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to gradually swell north of the direct route to the finish. This is because a low pressure system that will drop low in latitude off the coast of Portugal will partially cut off the trade winds, since the influx of air on the right side of the high pressure system will be greatly reduced. It is at this point that our skippers will have to make a decision on the strategy to adopt for the rest of the race. For the fastest in the fleet, this trade wind system will remain well established (at around 18 to 20 knots) during the day on Wednesday near the direct route, enough to take advantage of gaining a few more miles. This trade wind will turn slightly to the right again, with a flow almost due east. To then keep some air and downwind under this trade wind system, they will have to veer towards the southwest to try to bypass the air pocket expected on the direct route over the next few days. The competition will be fierce with several strategies emerging, between detours of several hundred miles to maintain speed, or taking the risk of losing a lot of pressure by taking a direct route.

Thursday, May 1st

On Thursday, the best strategy for our sailors would seem to be to maintain a more southerly course, in order to maintain a trade wind regime that is still established for this day. It is at the latitude of Cape Verde that these trade winds will remain moderate, at 15 to 20 knots, from the east. For sailors who choose this option, they will still be able to make satisfactory progress on port tack. For latecomers, they may not be able to take advantage of this still fairly active regime, and will probably find themselves under a weaker trade wind regime. These trade winds will turn a little more to the right as the hours go by, arriving in a weaker southeasterly flow at the end of Thursday. For sailors continuing their route southwest of the transect, they risk having the wind a little bit on the beam. A real weakening of the wind should therefore occur for the weekend where the sailors will lose pressure. It will therefore be necessary to anticipate the next race strategies now.

Full bulletin here: https://marine.meteoconsult.fr/