New Deal ♠️♦️🃏

In less than five days, the outcome of the Transat Paprec will be known. But with just over 700 nautical miles (1,300 km) left to go, the suspense is overwhelming. The fleet is tightening, the gaps are closing, and uncertainty is high: the current leaders could finish last, and the last ones could take the leaders' place. The large windless zone has reshuffled the cards and already guarantees a thrilling end to the race. We analyze the stakes with Yann Chateau, Deputy Race Director.

The weather situation

So there it is, this concrete reality visible on the maps and palpable from the boats. The long windless zone that abruptly stops the trade winds is now facing the skippers. The situation is all the more complicated because it is difficult to model, since weather data is much less important in this part of the Atlantic than on land. "We don't know exactly how air masses move," explains Yann Chateau. "Models propose a weather scenario, but it doesn't always correspond to what the sailors feel."

Furthermore, the squalls are becoming more and more numerous, which further confuses the issue. This sometimes causes particularly significant speed differences between the competitors. A boat can be racing along at high speed with a wind of around thirty knots and then find itself completely bogged down. The idyllic picture postcard image with constant trade winds under the sun is bound to be shattered. "It gets on your nerves and it makes you tense," confided Thomas André (Cap St Barth) yesterday. But it also has the advantage of shaking up the hierarchy and increasing the suspense.

The tactical situation

Last weekend was a good time to make choices. The leaders, Wings of the Ocean (Alexis Thomas and Pauline Courtois), Skipper Macif (Charlotte Yven and Hugo Dhallenne, 2nd) and Cap St Barth (Cindy Brin and Thomas André, 3rd), closely followed by Les Étoiles Filantes (Quentin Vlamynck and Audrey Ogereau, 4th) opted for a very northerly route. In short, they are taking a longer route but hope to be faster by being on the edge of the windless zone. "It's an interesting shift because it allows them to exploit the pressure for as long as possible, it's the safest position," explains Yann Chateau.

For their part, their pursuers, including DEMAIN (Martin Le Pape and Mathilde Géron, 5th), Laure Galley and Kévin Bloch (DMG MORI Academy) and Région Bretagne – CMB Espoir (Victor Le Pape, Estelle Greck, 7th) have chosen a more southerly route. They opted for a more direct route, thus ensuring they cover fewer miles but run a greater risk of getting tangled up.

Who will have the last word? For the moment, the two weather models (European and American) do not agree. This means that one sees the Northerners winning, the other sees the Southerners winning the stakes. "The weather situation is very uncertain, so the race scenario is just as uncertain," explains Yann Chateau. The only certainty: the gaps will continue to narrow as the race leader hits the windless zone before the rest of the fleet. For example, this Monday morning, Solan Ocean Racing (Maggie Adamson and Calanach Finlayson) was 3 to 4 knots faster than Wings of the Ocean (Alexis Thomas and Pauline Courtois) and Skipper Macif (Charlotte Yven and Hugo Dhalenne). "That means they are gaining 3 miles per hour on the race leader, so they can make up around thirty miles during the day!"

The next few days : "Currently, the fleet is on a fairly northerly approach with an overall south-easterly wind flow," he adds. The boats will therefore have a lot of port tack to do, "at least 90%," says Yann. "It won't be about gybes but about how to adapt to the situation. We'll have to choose whether to slip a little to head north, or to cross the light zone more quickly. All their talent lies in their ability to be bold and opportunistic."

© Alexis Courcoux / Saint Barth

Estimated times of arrival (ETA)

The uncertainty surrounding the weather situation and the race scenario also affects the estimated times of arrival (ETA). Here again, the European and American forecasting models do not agree: their forecasts are 7 hours apart. While both predict an arrival on Thursday, May 8, one suggests an arrival at 3 a.m. (local time, 9 a.m. in mainland France), the other at 10 a.m. (local time, 4 p.m. French time). On the other hand, the fact that the fleet is tightening up, which is already observable now, will be even more so at the finish. Yann Chateau confirms: "according to the routing, the first 15 could cross the finish line with less than 5 hours of separation!" Enough to promise a great finale and a great party at the finish of the Transat Paprec in Saint-Barthélemy!