METEO CONSULT Weather bulletin for Thursday, May 8

General situation

This Thursday, there will still be an unstable and stormy east to south-east flow on the edge of the soft low pressure system at 1014 hPa located at 26°N and 67°W with unpredictable wind conditions.

Friday, the soft zone will fill and shift westward to 70°W longitude. The trade winds will gradually resume around the Antilles.

On Saturday, the trade winds were once again well established, with an easterly wind of between 10 and 12 knots near Saint-Barthélemy.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat Paprec

This Thursday morning at 7:00 a.m., the skippers are in the final stretch to reach the eagerly awaited finish in Saint-Barthélemy. Some will manage to escape the calm zones and arrive within 24 hours, within a very tight fleet. However, their progress remains difficult in this calm weather with greatly reduced speeds and persistent weather instability. Some sailors must face storm squalls at one point or another, even if these storms can offer a beautiful visual spectacle. The competition is becoming very exciting as the entire fleet continues to regroup for these final hours of racing. For good reason, only 35 nautical miles separate the race leaders from the penultimate duo. It's still the duo of Ellie Driver/Oliver Hill on Women Engineering Society who are bringing up the rear, just over 100 miles behind the leading duo of Martin Le Pape/Mathilde Géron on Demain, who are still in the lead, just over 170 miles from the finish in Saint-Barthélemy. The rankings are so tight that less than three hours could separate a large part of the fleet at the finish line, making for a thrilling end to the race. Our sailors will have to remain highly focused until the end, where their position in the rankings is clearly not set, which adds stress to our crews, who are forced to regularly change sails in the face of this irregular and erratic wind, in order to slalom between the squalls.

Thursday, May 8

This Thursday, the sailors continue their descent towards Saint-Barth in complicated wind conditions. The trade winds will not be determined to resume service with an east to southeast wind that remains as erratic as the day progresses from the east, so much so that on average, some models see this trade wind drop to only 6 knots at times, particularly towards the end of the day. The duos will progress slowly, some taking advantage of slightly more favorable wind conditions than the others depending on their position on the race course. Some are sometimes sailing at 8-9 knots while others are stuck in the calm and sail at less than 3 knots. The ranking will therefore continue to shift with this light and erratic wind. The game options therefore remain difficult and the sailors will still have to gybe several times before reaching the finish. The suspense lies in the difference in lateral position between the northern and southern parts of the race course where each duo has chosen its route. The first sailors could therefore set foot on land as early as this Thursday at the end of the night (local time), if the wind is favorable. However, this complex weather situation with these erratic winds makes it difficult to accurately estimate the arrival time (ETA) of the first skippers. We will have to wait a little longer to specify the ETA. The suspense will remain until the end since our skippers could all arrive within a handkerchief of each other, probably within a gap of only 5 hours.

Friday, May 9

Friday will likely be the final day of racing for the fleet, with the finish expected within the next 24 hours. The weather conditions could improve slightly in these final hours of racing, with a light breeze that will gradually dissipate, giving way to more air and flow. The trade winds should thus resume and "come in," with a final stretch filled with suspense for our skippers, who will see the finish line approaching ever closer. Around ten knots in an easterly wind could accompany our sailors until the expected finish at the end of this Friday, French time. By sailing on port tack with this easterly trade wind, part of the fleet could pass south of Barbuda before turning north to reach the long-awaited finish.

Saturday, May 10

The last skippers should arrive no later than early Saturday morning, when wind conditions will be favorable, averaging up to 10 to 15 knots, under the renewed trade winds in the east. For our sailors who have chosen a more northerly route, they will be able to finish this race on port tack at a good pace, in order to return to Saint-Barthélemy.