Forecast Météo consult : Sunday 27th of april 2025

General Situation This Sunday, a moderate northeast trade wind regime prevails in the area between Madeira and the Canaries and over the eastern part of the Atlantic.On Monday, a trough will approach from the west of Madeira, while the trade wind regime will be well established between the Canaries and Cape Verde and over the open Atlantic. The wind will veer to the north near the Canaries.On Tuesday, the flow will significantly strengthen between a 1030 hPa high-pressure system and a low-pressure system over the northern Atlantic, with the passage of a cold front. A brisk northeast trade wind will blow between the Canaries and Cape Verde.

Weather conditions at sea for the Transat PaprecBy 7 a.m. this Sunday morning, part of the fleet had passed the La Palma checkpoint in the Canaries and was heading out into the open Atlantic towards Saint Barthélemy. The race was tight and exciting last night and overnight between Madeira and La Palma, with most sailors neck-and-neck under a steady and well-established Portuguese trade wind.While the duo Laure Galley/Kevin Bloch aboard DMG Mori Academy were still leading early Saturday morning, it is now Julie Simon/Davy Beaudart on Hellowork who are leading, having chosen a different route, more northerly and more direct than their competitors, sailing at about 13 knots on starboard tack.The duo Lola Billy/Corentin Horeau on Région Bretagne - CMB Océane, after suffering rudder damage and stopping in Cascais on Thursday, have made a strong comeback and are no longer at the back of the fleet, currently standing in 18th place. The duo Ellie Driver/Oliver Hill on Women Engineering Society are now at the back, 128 miles behind the leaders, and have yet to pass La Palma.

Sunday, April 27This Sunday morning, the fleet began crossing the Atlantic under a northeast trade wind of about 20 knots, allowing rapid progress on a west-southwest course. Sailors are considering the best possible trajectory to anticipate variations in the speed and direction of the trade wind, which will not be entirely smooth sailing...Apart from the leading duo, the other skippers have chosen a more southerly route, taking advantage of a livelier north-northeast trade wind, aiming to pass south of La Palma's latitude.At this stage, it is a risky choice because the trade wind is less steady there than on the more direct northern route, but it could pay off later.From midday onwards this Sunday, the trade wind on the direct route will weaken slightly and shift a bit to the left. It will orient north-northeast, blowing at an average of 17-18 knots during the afternoon and into the evening, before becoming nearly due north late at night.Overall, speeds will slow for much of the fleet, though the wind will remain a bit stronger in the southern part of the race area.The ridge to the north will continue to settle in during the night, causing the trade wind to shift left.

Monday, April 28On Monday, sailors following the direct route to the Antilles will still encounter a rather weak trade wind regime due to the ridge extending along the orthodromic route to Saint Barthélemy.Those who opted for a more southerly route should retain slightly more breeze, allowing them to potentially recover any deficit from the previous day.However, the ridge will gradually weaken over the course of the day, and sailors will find renewed breeze from the northwest of their positions.Thus, sailors who chose a more northerly route will be able to take full advantage of this new breeze, particularly late in the day, due to the ridge's weakening to the north.This more lively trade wind will progressively veer back to the northeast, providing more favorable downwind sailing for the competitors.The trade wind will significantly strengthen again, exceeding 20 knots during the night from Monday into Tuesday, and could even reach 25-27 knots later in the night, demanding high concentration from the sailors despite the wind being aft.

Notably, sailors will need to continue refining their racing strategies to optimize their routes in anticipation of a trade wind weakening expected later in the week.

Tuesday, April 29On Tuesday, the trade wind will remain brisk and even powerful along the skippers' route, energized by the passage of a cold front, continuing to veer progressively.It will be crucial to find the right balance between speed and course choice under challenging conditions that will truly test the competitors' endurance in the open Atlantic.By then, the fleet will be sailing at high speeds across the Atlantic under a northeast trade wind of around 20 to 25 knots.Skippers will need to gybe several times to maximize speed while maintaining comfort onboard, and may even ease their sails slightly to maintain the furious pace.This will also be the time for competitors to consider their strategy for the coming days, with a weakening of the trade wind expected from Wednesday evening.Some will choose to head farther south to retain more breeze, while others may risk staying on a more direct route but face the threat of calm patches or even doldrums as a ridge sets in.

Wednesday, April 30On Wednesday, a high-pressure ridge is expected to gradually build north of the direct route towards the finish.A depression descending to a low latitude off Portugal will disrupt the trade wind regime, significantly weakening airflow on the right side of the high.At this point, skippers will need to make strategic decisions about the rest of the race.For the fastest in the fleet, the trade wind will still be moderate (around 18 knots) during the day near the direct route, offering a final opportunity to gain some miles.To maintain breeze and downwind sailing under this trade wind regime afterward, they will need to veer southwest to try and bypass the anticipated calm patches along the direct route in the following days.Competition will be fierce with several emerging strategies: some may choose a detour of several hundred miles to maintain speed, while others will risk losing pressure by sticking to a direct route.

Cyril WUEST, METEO CONSULT